TresSugar

Add It Up and See - Are You a Swing Voter?

CitizenSugar — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 06:00:52 -0700

"I pledge allegiance to the flag, of the United States of. . . Pennsylvania?" It seems that way anymore, with all attention being lavished upon that holy grail of voter, the Swing Voter. Because like it or lump it, the Electoral College system means the presidential race is decided really by 15ish states - those with the big enough electoral "score" to make a difference in the race to the magic winning number of 270. PA's hefty score makes those votes more attractive and potentially a bigger deal than others.

Want to find out how "swingy" your own vote is? Slate has put together this handy calculator to figure out that very thing. Slot in six easy facts about you and see both your "pull" and swing factor. The tool weights the state you're voting in higher than any other factor, and then adds in key demographics about race and education, finishing off with how many people there are like you in your state. The guts of the calculator are based purely on polls, so it is only a close facsimile of voter behavior - but with a week left, if the needle points sharply to one side or the other when you put in your info, clear off the sofa. You can bet one of the campaigns will be paying you a visit.

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It's Not Just Reality - Swing Vote the Movie Comes to Theatres

CitizenSugar — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 07:00:59 -0700

Now that the Fourth of July has come and gone, I need a new summer event to look forward to. This might be it? The movie Swing Vote stars Kevin Costner (I wonder if it's been a long time since anyone's written that phrase. . .?) and hits theaters August 1. Here's the premise: when historically inexplicable yet "mischievous antics" of a 12-year-old girl leave the outcome of the presidential election relying on a single vote one man (dubbed a "likable loser) all eyes rest on him to decide.

I'm dying to see how they make this work, you know, with the electoral college and laws, history and the like, but that might be part of the fun? The flick promises a "stunning series of events that place the fate of the free world in the hands of a man more comfortable slinging cases of beer." OK, there you go - stunning. Here's to hoping!

The presidential candidates are played by Dennis Hopper and Kelsey Grammer, with Nathan Lane and Stanley Tucci playing their campaign managers. Not a shabby cast! Here's one of the phoney campaign ads from the movie, it's pretty funny - and that Dennis Hopper is kind of striking. What do you think, will you be lining up to catch this one - or voting "No, thanks?"

Need to Know: The Hispanic Vote

LibertySugar — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 15:00:03 -0800

Participation in a Univision sponsored debate might not be enough to solve the GOP's Hispanic vote problem. Republican immigration rhetoric, which can have an us-against-them tone, has seemed to reverse the inroads George W. Bush made with the fastest-growing segment of the population. In 2004, Bush captured 40 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Currently, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, 57 percent of Hispanic voters call themselves democrats, while just 23 percent identify as republicans. Hispanic voters rank immigration below other issues such as education and health care. Yet, it is the only issue that sharply rose in importance.

Hispanic voters loom as potential swing voters, as they are located strategically on the electoral-college map. If the GOP does not find a way to reconcile the concerns of Hispanics with the more native wing of the party, it may lose votes from Hispanics who are in line with the party on most other issues.

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Could a Message From Across the World Swing Your Vote?

LibertySugar — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 07:00:00 -0700

The rest of the world may not be able to cast their vote in the upcoming presidential election, but they still have messages for US voters about how the choice will affect their families and home countries. Indie American satellite network Link TV created a mini video site called Dear American Voter that lets people from all over the globe create and send video messages to those of us who can fill a ballot.

The ploys range from sarcastic to serious and span the political spectrum. In one of the site's promo videos (see below) a handful of non-US citizens say they wish they had a voice in the election - one woman from Australia even suggests she should be able to vote for the US president. Clearly it's critical to keep the conversation open, but do you think a message from across the world could swing your vote?

When Will We Know the Winner? Key Toss-ups to Watch

LibertySugar — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:04:50 -0800

While Americans exercise their right to vote, you can get prepared for the results. Sadly, we won't have Tim Russert to walk us through it all this year. Barack Obama supporters can start feeling relieved if their candidate wins either Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida. Conversely, a magic combination of wins for John McCain could include Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Here are the states you should keep an eye on:

Indiana: The nation's first polls begin to close in typically red Indiana at 6 p.m. EST. If Obama wins the 11 electoral votes, things won't look good for McCain.
Virginia: McCain's most practical path to the White House includes Virginia and its 13 votes. Polls close at 7 p.m. EST.
Georgia: Things are close here, but we'll know who gets the 15 electoral votes sometime after polls close at 7 p.m. EST.
Florida: The notorious swing state might not be as essential as past years, but with 27 electoral votes it's a crucial prize.
Ohio: Polls close there at 7:30 p.m. EST. It should be a close battle, as usual, for the state's 20 votes!

For more states that could decide the race, read more.

North Carolina: Officials have the option to keep the polls open until 8:30 p.m EST. The state hasn't gone blue since Jimmy Carter won it. There are 15 votes up for grabs.
Pennsylvania: Obama has had a lead here for a while, but McCain has campaigned hard. If McCain wins the 21 votes, and we'll know sometime after the polls close at 8 p.m. EST, he probably still has a good shot.
Missouri: Polls close at 8 p.m. EST. With Missouri's 11 votes, so goes the winner of the election, usually.
Colorado: Polls close at 9 p.m. EST. Colorado's nine votes seem to be leaning toward Obama, who made a big play for the previously red state.
Nevada: We'll have to wait until at least 10 p.m. EST to find out where the five votes go.

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Voters in Swing States Removed From Rolls Illegally

CitizenSugar — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 08:45:49 -0700

Since voting is already under way in Ohio, this Times investigation of voters being removed from the rolls in violation of federal law is troubling to say the least. At least six swing states appear to have illegally removed voters, ironically while these states were trying to comply with the 2002 Help America Vote Act intended to, um, help America vote.

Just how the states have deviated from the law varies: in Colorado and Michigan they're removing voters less than 90 days out from an election (not OK except in cases of death); Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio seem to be misusing Social Security data to verify voter registration (as illustrated in this graphic); and three other states have troubling use of the data as well. Under federal law, using Social Security data to verify voter registration is to be an absolute last resort as federal databases are less reliable than state.

To see what the investigation found, read more.

The Times found that, for instance, Nevada used the Social Security database more than 740,000 times to check voter files and found 715,000 nonmatches. Though the irregularities don't appear to be partisan, due to aggressive voter drives by the Obama campaign, those voters could be disproportionately affected.

With episodes of voter fraud already surfacing, and questions as whether foreclosure or mental illness affects voting status, does this new information indicate serious problems with our voting system? Do you anticipate big problems at the polls next month, or are these isolated incidents?

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Anti-Islamic Documentary Distributed Free in Newspapers

LibertySugar — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 14:30:33 -0700

If a DVD titled Obsession: Radical Islam’s War Against the West has fallen out of your newspaper, it's not because print media has given up on people reading. You can thank, or blame, the Clarion Fund, a nonprofit dedicated to exposing the "threat of radical Islam," which has placed the DVDs in ad sections of swing-state newspapers.

Obsession is a documentary that compares Islam to Nazism, citing similarities in hate speech, paranoia, and us-against-them mentality. Very few newspapers have refused the DVD and its accompanying ad revenue. Those that have placed it in their pages - like the New York Times - have justified it by saying that it would violate sponsors’ right to free speech if they were to reject it.

While the Clarion Fund takes credit for distributing the DVD, it does not admit to paying for it. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), saying the Clarion Fund has tried to influence the presidential election and violated its status as a tax-exempt nonprofit.

On air at Democracy Now!, Ibrahim Hooper, a spokesperson for CAIR, questioned the Clarion Fund's motives. To see what he had to say, read more.

It’s a tremendous campaign. It’s unbelievable in its magnitude. We’re talking 28 million households, plus mailings, plus automated phone that are going to people in these swing states, saying, "We just sent you a DVD. Watch it and remember it when you go into the voting booth." So it’s obvious they were trying to influence the presidential election by sending to only key swing states around the country.

And we still don’t know who’s behind this. The Clarion Fund, that claimed to distribute this, is really just a virtual organization. It appears to be a front for a group based in Israel called Aish HaTorah. They share - they shared offices, they shared personnel, and they’re refusing to say who is paying for this, that’s got to be a minimum $50 million campaign.

Do you think the Clarion Fund is trying to promote awareness for what it believes, or is there something more sinister going on?

Hey Voters - Can You Prove You're a Citizen on Demand?

LibertySugar — Tue, 13 May 2008 10:00:25 -0700

Who gets to vote is becoming a partisan issue, just like who gets a vote.

Mostly Republicans in 19 states have proposed legislation that would require proof of citizenship at the voting booth. Not content with the strict identification requirements recently upheld by the Supreme Court, these states want to make sure illegal immigrants are not voting, and improve voter confidence in the system.

Democratic leaders oppose strict ID laws, saying they disproportionately keep poor, disabled, elderly, and minority citizens away from the polls. Birth certificates, for example, take weeks to get, cost money, and may be difficult to track down if they are lost or kept out of state.

Missouri's secretary of state estimates that the law would disenfranchise 240,000 citizens unable to prove citizenship on such short notice. That number could be significant in November, as Missouri is a swing state that will likely go Red or Blue by a thin margin.

Do we have to protect the rights of citizens who may have difficulty obtaining proof? Which is a graver risk: letting a non-citizen vote, or keeping a citizen from exercising the voting - the quintessential act of democracy? What if we could review votes later to disqualify non-citizens, while attaching stiffer penalties for fraud?

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Briefing Book! Obama Wins Kid-Vote in New Poll

LibertySugar — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 13:30:01 -0700

Kids: Do the little ones reflect their parents' votes? Obama wins in kid poll. - Donklephant
McCain: Better than an Obama infomercial? John McCain set to appear on Saturday Night Live three days before election. - Huffington Post
Election: Cover this? Inside the nastiest campaign rumors. - Politico
GOP: Winning by losing? Defeat and ideological purees will shrink, not build, the GOP base. - Townhall
Pennsylvania: Did Hillary Clinton approve this message? New McCain mailer in swing state features Hillary Clinton and her harsh words about Obama. - Talking Points Memo

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CNN Uses Fake Republican to Hit McCain? Real Ones on Road!

CitizenSugar — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:45:17 -0700

In a doom-and-gloom message from CNN today, it seemed like all was lost for the Republican candidate - no young voter was ever going to be inspired by time-tested McCain. Except, it's all a fake! According to a press release, CNN used a phony College Republican to dummy up the story.

The CNN piece quoted Eric Pearlmutter, a supposed College Republican at USC. Pearlmutter said, "We try to get people out to our College Republican meetings, but we can't seem to get the same amount of support." Seems damning - except that the real USC College Republican President Ben Myers says, "I have never met Eric Pearlmutter. I have never seen him at a College Republican meeting. He is not on our membership roster. I don't know why someone would think he speaks for us. As far as I know, he could be a Democrat." Whoa!

Update: According to TruthCaucus, the disputed CNN story was taken down for a period this evening. The name of the source, Eric Pearlmutter, may have been misspelled (the real spelling is possibly Eric Perlmutter-Gumbiner) though even so, Perlmutter isn't listed as an officer of the USC College Republicans. Plus his quote sounds very familiar. . . .

Update II: Interestingly, there seems to be a producer at CNN named Bruce Perlmutter. I wonder if he's related to the source of the quote?

Update III: CNN has admitted the error, via the LA Times saying, “Eric Perlmutter appeared on today’s American Morning segment about young Republicans on college campuses. While he attends USC and says that he is a registered Republican, he was inadvertently identified on-screen as a member of the USC College Republicans organization. We regret that error. We have invited Ben Myers, the president of the USC College Republicans organization, to appear on American Morning at a future time.”

In the meantime, there are real young Republicans on the road, crossing country for McCain. To see their story, read more.

Want proof that young people are excited about McCain? A group of four intrepid college Repubs are on the ultimate road trip - swinging across the country, heading coast to coast through 21 states without ever leaving red districts. Their mission is called Where Is the Red?, and it's pulling out all the stops to answer that question - honestly.

Knowing that the youth vote will play a pivotal vote in this election, the GOP road-trippers are volunteering for campaigns, inspiring College Republicans, and signing up voters. You can follow their every move through photos, videos, and their blog - not to mention the Google Map/GPS feature that shows exactly where the real young Republicans are - even if it's not on CNN.

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