TresSugar

Where I'm Clicking Now: FiveThirtyEight Electoral Predictions

CitizenSugar — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 03:00:00 -0700

Now that the conventions are finally (!!!) upon us, it's time to start paying attention to the end game, the big Nov. 4. With the presidency pegged on who grabs the majority of the electoral votes (the magic 270), the website FiveThirtyEight is one-stop shopping for all the data you'll need to suss out the horse race.

Calling themselves "Electoral Projections Done Right," and named for the number of electors in the electoral college, the mission of the site is to:

Accumulate and analyze polling and political data in way that is informed, accurate and attractive. Most narrowly, to give you the best possible objective assessment of the likely outcome of upcoming elections.

To see how it stands out, the incredible thoroughness of its methods, and whether it has a crystal ball, read more.

The site stands out from the field because it assigns weight to polls based on the track record, sample size, and currentness of the data, and - this is amazing - it simulates the election 10,000 times before every site update in order to "provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952." So no magical crystal ball, just some pretty fancy statisticizing. If you're a data hound, just curious, or need a tidbit to fire back in your next political discussion, you'll find it here.

Guess Who?

LibertySugar — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 00:00:33 -0700

Who thinks the Electoral College is for losers?

"I think it is high time we got rid of the Electoral College and elected our presidents the way we elect every other elected official in the country - by a vote of the people. The overwhelming majority of the American people do, too. Under the current system, running for president means just one thing: focus on the so-called swing states."

The First Electoral College Maps! November Preview?

CitizenSugar — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 00:00:03 -0800

Holy cow! SurveyUSA just posted fully red-and-blue election preview maps based on 30,000 interviews in all 50 states! Almost fully clickable (they're working on it) so you can see the data behind the color!

Here they are! Can you tell which map is Clinton vs. McCain and which is Obama vs. McCain? I'll give you a hint: at this point both Democrats are winning the electoral match-up. Take a guess and then click to find out!

Obama vs. McCain

Hillary vs. McCain

Source

Where I'm Clicking Now: Global Electoral College

LibertySugar — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:00:15 -0700

The Economist polled the world to find out who would win the US election if the result depended on a global electoral college. The results so far: Obama would win 9,103 votes to McCain's 163. The poll gives every country a minimum of three votes, and then allocates additional votes based on the proportion of the world's 6.5 billion voting population located in each country.

The methodology becomes less than scientific after that, as those visiting the website to vote make up the sample. Once a country has more than 10 votes, the results get added to the map. As of now, Afghanistan and Iran are strong Obama countries, while Iraq's 43 electoral votes seem secure in the McCain column. Macedonia is the only country in Europe leaning McCain right now, in addition to a few countries in Africa.

The fact that the world is painted solid blue hints that the international media must have painted Obama in a positive light. It also provides evidence that a President Obama could help make the American brand internationally popular again.

Source

Add It Up and See - Are You a Swing Voter?

CitizenSugar — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 06:00:52 -0700

"I pledge allegiance to the flag, of the United States of. . . Pennsylvania?" It seems that way anymore, with all attention being lavished upon that holy grail of voter, the Swing Voter. Because like it or lump it, the Electoral College system means the presidential race is decided really by 15ish states - those with the big enough electoral "score" to make a difference in the race to the magic winning number of 270. PA's hefty score makes those votes more attractive and potentially a bigger deal than others.

Want to find out how "swingy" your own vote is? Slate has put together this handy calculator to figure out that very thing. Slot in six easy facts about you and see both your "pull" and swing factor. The tool weights the state you're voting in higher than any other factor, and then adds in key demographics about race and education, finishing off with how many people there are like you in your state. The guts of the calculator are based purely on polls, so it is only a close facsimile of voter behavior - but with a week left, if the needle points sharply to one side or the other when you put in your info, clear off the sofa. You can bet one of the campaigns will be paying you a visit.

Source

Barack Obama Takes Pennsylvania

CitizenSugar — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:34:00 -0800

The night is still early, but NBC is saying Barack Obama has started off with a lead in the Electoral College by winning Pennsylvania. Both parties targeted the so-called "Keystone State" as crucial to winning the race, along with large Eastern and Midwestern states like Florida and Missouri.

It's projected that Obama also won Massachusetts, New Jersey, and his home state of Illinois.

Source

Could Barack Obama Win in a Landslide?

LibertySugar — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 15:45:00 -0700

A while back Republican strategists imagined a situation where John McCain would sweep the election. Now, it's Barack Obama's team picturing a generous November for its candidate.

The case for a strong Obama showing on Nov. 4 includes his muscular organization in swing states, his popularity among first-time voters, a surge in newly registered Democrats, and indications that he can pick up at least nine George W. Bush-voting states. A new poll showing Obama up by five in typically-red Virginia, adds a piece of support to the landslide pie.

Right now Obama is up eight points in Gallup's (volatile) national tracking poll. As for Electoral College predictions, when leaners are included Obama has 255 compared to McCain's 227. Do all signs point to an Obama landslide?

Source

Playing Pundit: Is McCain's Poll Momentum Bounce or Trend?

LibertySugar — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 15:45:59 -0700

John McCain has seen a significant popularity surge in the polls, erasing Obama's lead. According to the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, which has McCain over Obama by two points among likely voters, before McCain tapped Palin Obama had an eight-point advantage among white women. McCain now leads that group by 12 points. The poll also shows a 26-point swing for McCain in the crucial Midwest.

Gallup's latest poll shows that Independents currently prefer McCain by a 12-point difference. As for the electoral college, Rassmussen has Obama ahead 193 to 183, compared to his previous advantage of 210 to 165. As for one poll that doesn't really matter, the latest BBC poll shows that the rest of the world wants Obama to win.

Today Obama told supporters to hold off on panicking over the same polls that had him down 20 last summer. He said: "When people start looking at who's going to deliver on things people care about. . . . Ultimately those are the issues that are going to make the biggest difference in this race."

There's still a long way to go till November, but what do you make of the latest polls?

Source

Baskin-Robbins' New Election Flavors! Which to Lick?

CitizenSugar — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 09:00:48 -0700

Just in time to cool off this heated election, Baskin-Robbins has released two spanking new flavors, one for each of the candidates. Ever wonder what two scoops of McCain tastes like? His flavor, Straight Talk Crunch is:

Caramel ribbon, chocolate pieces, candy red states and crunchy mixed nuts swirled into White Chocolate ice cream.

Think a lick of Barack is more your taste? His flavor, Whirl of Change, is:

Peanut-nougat ice cream whirled with chunks of chocolate-covered peanut brittle and a caramel ribbon.

I think they're willing to look the other way on the whole Obama doesn't like ice cream thing . . . Given the (banana) split of the country, what would election-themed flavors be without a chance to vote for your favorite? You can, in the Flavor Debate '08. From now until Oct. 20, sample the candidates' sweet stuff and vote online or in stores for the winner. I wonder if the ice cream war could be a useful replacement for the old Electoral College? It would be a sweeter contest, to be sure.

Which flavor would you want to try first?

Where I'm Clicking Now: GoCrossPoliticalBash08

CitizenSugar — Sat, 22 Mar 2008 07:00:28 -0700

Hold on to your hats, this is a nerdy one! GoCrossPoliticalBash08 is part of the game phenomenon GoCrossCampus or GXC. It's an online a variation on board games like Risk, and has spawned quite a following on college campuses. That's pretty nerdy, but it gets better: in the political version of the game, players (anyone with an .edu email address can play) are battling a virtual version of the presidential campaign. Who are the big two candidates? Ron Paul and Stephen Colbert.

Want in? Here's how to play:

The rules of GXC are relatively simple. Every player is allocated a number of armies each day and must coordinate attacks, troop movements and defensive maneuvers with teammates. Players can move their armies once each day, and the game software calculates the result of clashes with an algorithm that gives a slight edge to defenders.

And forget talk of superdelegates. Currently Texas is controlled by Ron Paul and 99 armies and California is controlled by Stephen Colbert and his 277 armies. I don't know but they might be onto something. Never mind the Electoral College, this might be the most powerful display of true democracy in the whole campaign.