Leading up to the election, talk of the Bradley effect was all over the place — everyone was watching to see whether in the privacy of the voting booth, people would really pull the lever (or fill in the arrow) for the first black president. Then there was talk about the "Obama effect" — people voting for him because of his race rather than his qualifications. Since Barack Obama's decisive victory, neither theory has been thrown around too much, but there's a new effect in town.

This week, Thomas Freidman floated the theory of the "Buffett effect", meaning that older white men told their buddies they would go McCain, but when filling out their ballots, Obama got the votes. The name, of course, refers to Warren Buffett, who may have influenced the affluent community to have faith in bringing America together, despite higher taxes. That, combined with the energy of the youth vote — the children and grandchildren of these men — inspired the change of heart.
While there's something to be said for that, how about the possibility of no effect at all? Just read more.
As it turns out, people were honest about who they were planning to vote for which means that all these "effects" may have had no effect at all. In fact, only 19 percent of voters said that race was a factor in their decision, down from twice as many earlier this year, and it doesn't seem like people were lying. While hopefully this is further proof that the election was about finding the right leader for our country, it was still a historical moment for the United States.
Any Obama/Bradley/Buffett effect loses some credibility when the record-breaking youth vote is taken into account. Perhaps it wasn't about what the older population was doing in the booths so much as the youth population actually figuring out where the booth was, and not feeling any pressure to cover up their choice. So what do you think, did any of these catch phrase "effects" affect the election? Or do you have a name for an effect all your own?









Dolce & Gabbana
ras
John Lewis
I think he connected with the people. No theories needed on voting itself with this run. People share what he thinks, by 2050 more than half of America won't be white, there is a good chance another non white will run again. He won because young educated Americans (white, black, and others) share his view of the world. Obama has a nomadic childhood (I love that personally cause I've had that too), he represents "the citizen of the world" category which young people understand. We are living in an already globalized era, people travel, people understand his/her stories, people are savvy and people of course use the internet which Obama didi a lot
Well Happy days!
1We are ready for change and hope. That explains it all.
2I think what happened was just a "Voting for the Right Person Effect"
3How has he brought the country together? He won by 1% more (by popular vote) than George Bush did in 2004, yet the 2004 election divided the country.
4I call it the "Tired of Bullsh*t from the current Administration" Effect.
5This man changed Republican States to Democrat. Obama exceeded needing only 270. People listened to this man more than they did the expected bad rumors about him. They checked information out for themselves and made the right decision for themselves, and now for us all.
I love the fact that Obama is not waiting around to get his White House together. They said it took Bush until Feb. after he was sworn in, I believe, to choose his people.
But Obama knows how bad things are in so many category in America, so he's not wasting time with briefings and choosing his top people so that the early meetings can begin on how to fix America, so that so many people will stop suffering and worrying daily about their jobs, medical insurance, Social Security, the war, and etc...
6I think it’s pretty apparent now that A LOT of people who were telling their friends and co –workers that they were voting for McCain, with the signs in their yards, rally’s, and so on, honestly had it in mind to do the opposite once they stepped inside that voting booth alone. They new no one would see who they voted for, meaning of course choosing Obama instead of McCain.
Too many Americans are tired of being lied too, treated badly, and looked down on in so many ways. It makes it look like the government doesn't care at all about its own people, especially the children and elders. McCain thought he had the elder vote but they said that 65& or more of the vote went for Obama. Older people have a great concern for how their living too. I hope Obama corrects things sooner than later...although we all know that GREAT change truly takes thorough preparation and time.
7*65% or more*
8UnDave you are talking as if Obama barely squeaked by. Did you see how many red states went blue? Some which haven't voted democrat for decades!! He got 6% more votes than McCain. I don't think you can diminish what that says.
I liked this comment:
9"I think what happened was just a "Voting for the Right Person Effect""
I agree with ladychaos
10"I think it’s pretty apparent now that A LOT of people who were telling their friends and co –workers that they were voting for McCain, with the signs in their yards, rally’s, and so on, honestly had it in mind to do the opposite once they stepped inside that voting booth alone"
That can never ever be proven. ever.
11Obama got 52% of the popular vote, right? Yes, I concede that he got his votes in places that have traditionally been more conservative, but he had the resources to go after those states, thanks to his flip on taking public money (Again, I know that's another discussion). When GWB won in 2004, he got 51% of the popular vote, and the headlines across the country were "America divided!!" 4 years later, and Obama wins the popular vote by 1% more, and suddenly we are united again?!? How does this win unite the country?
12Why can't "the Obama effect" refer simply to the fact that people were inspired by him? That they voted for him because of who he is and what he stands for? Why does it have to refer to the race aspect?
13UnDave, Bush won 50% to 48% (2% spread) with 3 milllion more votes.
Obama won 52% to 46% (6% spread) with by 7 million more votes.
No matter how you look at it, Obama double the difference between Bush and Kerry.
14Plus, the electoral vote was 286 to 251 in 2004, where as the electoral numbers this year are 364 to 173.
So in 2004 the difference was only 35 electoral votes, where as this year the difference was 191. That is a BIG difference.
15Hmm. I remember the headlines from 2004 being that Bush claimed a mandate. But the electoral college was much more divided that year.
And the popular vote was split in 2004 51-48. This year it's shaking down to 52-46, right? So Obama has double the margin in the popular vote that Bush had.
Numbers are funny like that, though. You can spin it either way. You could say over half the country voted for Obama or that almost half didn't vote for him.
Anyone know what popular vote margins have been in other recent elections?
The most interesting "effect" I've read about so far was that the black turnout Obama inspired in California basically led gay marriage since 7 of 10 black voters voted for Prop 8.
16"basically led gay marriage"
basically killed gay marriage.
Oops.
17I am really sad about Prop 8. The language was literally "eliminates the right of same-sex couples..."
Since when does our country vote to eliminate a right? Aren't rights supposed to be protected?
18"Obama won 52% to 46% (6% spread) with by 7 million more votes."
Un Dave, you must take into consideration the percentage that McCain had if you want to make that argument. Otherwise it is invalid. 50 to 48 is only separated by 2%. Obama won by 6%. That is a big difference.
Although interesting to note, it looks like third parties or write ins got 2% of the vote during each of these elections.
19I do think there was a small "bandwagon" effect. Which might not have influenced the polls but did influence the hype. I know at least 3 people who were active in the campaign for Obama (posters, phone calls etc) who actually couldnt list the issues or stances Obama stood for (and actually got a couple of them wrong), which really surprised me.
I voted for a third party, but I am relieved Obama won over McCain, not because I agree with any of his policies, but for the blatant "Obama-effect." I think having a minority in the white house is a tremendous step forward for this country and could really help to shake up the status quo.
20None of this is either here nor there. Obama won, clearly. He ran a solid, well organized, disciplined campaign. McCain did not. Obama inspired people, McCain did not. Obama is now the President, McCain is not. Let's move on.
21I'm sure McCain inspired some people.
22My point is almost half of Americans didn't vote for him. I'm not saying this wasn't a historical election, or that he didn't win convincingly. How is this election going to unite the country, given those percentages?
23McCain inspired me. and my family and my friends (sugar and unsugar)
24I just realized...I didn't mean that sarcastically. I didn't mean, like, I'm sure there's at least one lame-o somewhere inspired by McCain. I meant that even though he wasn't drawing record screaming, crying crowds, I'm sure there's a good number of people who felt inspired by McCain.
25I didn't mean he didn't inspire anyone either, but not in the way Obama did.
26When over 95% of black people, who voted, voted for Obama, I think it's fair to say there was some serious racism at play.
27Black people are not racist for voting Obama- they are smart
I like what PinkNC said
"Voting for the right person effect"
28Seriously though, we could argue all day about racism, sexism, etc. Some people did vote for Obama just because he is black, but some people also only voted McCain because Obama was black and I am sure that there are women that voted for McCain just because he had Palin on the ticket. It doesn't matter anymore though. IT'S OVER! The best candidate won. Let's all move on...
29"When over 95% of black people, who voted, voted for Obama, I think it's fair to say there was some serious racism at play."
..OR... a huge segment of the American population for the first time in history got a chance to see their demographic reach the national stage, and though they would be comfortable with the issues as they stood, were doubly moved and motivated to vote in record numbers because they were excited and renewed in feeling they were part of a political process which had basically ignored them for the entire length of US history.
30Er, don't black people overwhelmingly vote Democrat anyway? And are all of the white people who voted for McCain racist? Are we SERIOUSLY having this conversation?
Before the election, race was not a factor to me when I was voting. But since the election, it's one of the main things I think about when I think of Obama, like how freaking moving it is to have a black president. The image of Obama accepting on the stage is just...amazing. I think that's why some people feel this can be uniting. Even if you didn't really agree on the issues, you might still be moved at having a black president.
And also, I mean, maybe you don't agree with Obama on the issues, but you can still give him a fair shake at being president. As much we love to argue on Citizen, there really is no formulaic "right" or "wrong" answer when it comes to the issues, so it's possible that even a policy a conservative disagreed with may have a good impact. I kind of agree with Bush on some immigration issues for example...at least giving some sort of amnesty or work-program.
31If 95% of white people voted for McCain, I would certainly be suspicious it was race-based.
3290% of African Americans voted for Gore in 2000, 88% voted for Kerry in 2004. I'm pretty sure that black people voting Democratic has nothing to do with race. Bill Clinton got 86% of the African American vote in both elections, so you can see the trend is for African Americans to vote even more strongly Democratic.
Also, from 2007 in the primaries: "Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama, her chief rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, is growing among African-American voters who are registered Democrats, and particularly among black women, a poll said Wednesday.
Sen. Hillary Clinton is the top choice of African-American Democrats, a new poll suggests.
Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama."
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/index.html
Yes, those African-Americans, why do they always have to be so racist? Again, I SERIOUSLY cannot believe we're having this discussion.
33Does anyone know what the gross numbers are for AA voters in '96, 2000, '04, and '08? I'm betting the numbers where a lot larger in '08 than any other year.
34How would that show anything? The overall voter turnout was higher this year? Are you like on a mission to show black people are racist or something? Like: "I'm going to PROVE that 20 more black people voted for Obama who would have stayed at home if a white person was running! See, black people are so racist too!!"
I can see having the first black president elected in the history of the US is not really having quite the moving impact on you that it is on the rest of the country and world.
I can't tell you how it feels to be African American and finally have someone other than a white dude in office, but as a woman, I can say that the day we have a credible woman running and elected to the highest office in the land I will certainly do whatever I can to get out the vote.
I think this is the point where the white dude should just stfu.
35Yeah, you're right. It's okay to vote on a racial basis.
36Are you purposely being dense or did you not read my comments? I'll say it AGAIN:
Bill Clinton: 86% of African American vote in both elections went to him.
Al Gore: 90% of African American vote went to him.
John Kerry: 88% of African American vote went to him.
Barack Obama: 95% of African American vote went to him.
What do all of these men have in common? They're black!!!! Oh wait, no....they're DEMOCRATS. It's hardly shocking that 7% more people found Barack Obama more appealing than John Kerry, and 5% more people found him more appealing than Al Gore.
But yeah, black people voting Democrat this year, totally a racial basis. Black people voting Democrat every other year? Oh, must have just been a coincidence.
And actually, it's okay to vote on ANY basis one wants to. Seriously, I could vote for John McCain because I liked his ties- it's none of your business. So if some black person DID vote for Barack Obama because it would be nice to have a black person running the country after 200 years of slavery followed by 65 years of Jim Crow laws I think it's none of your f*cking business also.
I'm just so interested in hearing white men tell me how I can and cannot vote. Blow me.
37Look, Snow, can I call you Snow? I do think that people can vote on any basis they want. That whole black/woman thing you said was very touching.
I think you're just a little upset because we agree on about every third thread. Pretty soon it's going to be every other thread.
38You're right, sorry I got so worked up...btw, when I use slightly vulgar language, it's pretty much a term of endearment, I don't do that for many people.
And people probably shouldn't vote based on ties, probably. My Grandma voted for a third party candidate solely because Obama "doesn't love America enough" and that drove me crazy, so we all get a little judgey on the reasons motivating people to vote a certain way.
39I probably say the word probably too much.
40OMG!!!
Newsflash!!!
I SUPPORTED OBAMA. AND I'M BLACK.
OMG!!!
I must be racist.
But then I thought to myself "eh, maybe I voted for him because I'm a DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE".
Damn. Guess I proved Organic wrong.
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