Who won today? Well, that depends what your definition of "win" is. Clinton definitely broke Obama's winning streak, and came away with big prizes — Ohio, a state crucial in the general election, and Texas, which is as big as it gets.
Hillary Clinton might have a legitimate ticket out of Junior Super Tuesday, simply as a result of the complicated nature of the results. Deciding which matters most —net delegates, the popular vote, big states vs. small states, momentum — is all susceptible to serious pro-Clinton spin. Today, it may mean that the Democrats and the press, want to take a second look at Barack Obama.
Earlier, most of you said that Hillary Clinton needed double digit wins in Ohio and Texas, or she's toast. It's true that the math is still not in Hillary's favor, and an appeal to superdelegates may turn people away from the Democratic Party. Now that the results are in, do you think Hillary should go on?
And for Politico's Top 5 factors behind a potential Clinton comeback, read more.
- The "SNL" Factor. SNL exposed fawning coverage of Obama.
- Wolfson Barks. Howard Wolfson is Clinton’s hired thug, a.k.a. campaign communications director. He is convincing the press to be tougher on Obama.
- Burying Bill. Is the former President on a covert mission with Harry in Afghanistan?
- Sister Sledge. The press may be underestimating how much complaints of sexism ring true to many women.
- Timing. The Tony Rezko trial coming on the tail of the 3 AM phone ad was perfect.
Marni
Lee
Penhaligon
Wow. She wanted to be treated like any other candidate, and she is. Granted, there's going to be a contingency of drama, because of the novelty of a female candidate who might actually stand a chance, but otherwise, this isn't more than they've (the media) done with/to/for any past candidate. The fact that she's complaining about the way her campaign has gone in the press just plays right into the game. Good job, Hill...
Has she forgotten that the Obama campaign started off the same way - with insane amounts of critism and drama? Same thing for a Black candidate with actual potential (sorry Jesse and Rev. Al, you were never really gonna make it).
I don't know who to support in this. I want to believe in Hillary, but she and her campaign workers make it so hard.
Is it just me, or did the Democratic superdelegates already say that they weren't going to vote against the numbers? I don't remember where I saw that, but if I find it, I'll either post or link it.
1After 12 straight Obama wins she wins in three states she in which had always lead. Clinton was ahead in Texas by double digits and it became a fight. She was ahead by 20 points in Ohio two weeks ago and Obama narrowed that lead. Get real she has not stopped his momentum. What Clinton is doing is dividing her party. She is basically asking the Super Delegates to ignore who is leading in pledged delegates and in the popular vote and pick her. Now she is ignoring Mississippi and Wyoming and jumping ahead to PA.
2Smear campaigns are used for one reason because they work. Never mind that there is no evidence of wrong doing by Obama when it comes to Rezko, imply that there is. Let's make his skin darker in our new ad and see if it helps us. Let's cry sexism every time I'm asked a hard question. Let's send out a press release about the Cananda story but let's ignore Canada's response. Let us use the tatics of Carl Rove to hurt our opponent and then claim that this is cleanest campaign Clinton has ever been a part of.
I will never vote for any one named Clinton again in my life. I will walk in that booth and leave the slot for president blank before I do.
3Wow...chill out liliblue...it's politcs (on BOTH sides) and if you've voted already it's out of your hands.
4Hillary has been treated unfairly by the media even a blind person can see that, just turn on MSNBC or CNN. As for the "smear campaign" its politics, shes not going to sit down and take the punches, Obama has used his share of underhanded tricks as well.
5I don't think she has proven anything. As liliblu said, she was expected to do well in these states. Obama still has more delegates and I think he will still get the nomination. And I agree I think the hanging on to the bitter end is fragmenting the party. It should still make for an interesting next couple of weeks, thats for sure.
6The media is treating Hillary like she is a Republican.
7I can't believe we have to listen to them bicker till April 22nd...
8I watched Obama's speech last night. He actually talked about the issues and not just "change". I like him, I just don't think he's going to get the nomination. Specially now that the Clinton machine is greased up and ready to go again. I think that by the time all of this is over, people are going to think McCain is a refreshing "change". GO MCCAIN!!
9i feel like sadly - obama had it for a while but hilary is getting better. i feel like hilary is still in a good place with delegates since she has the super delegate majority there. we can keep our fingers crossed that she remains tough and strong for the rest of the campaign until the convention.
10Yeah Hillary!
Clinton/Obama '08!
11more like go obama!!!
OBAMA/Clinton '08!
12GO OBAMA! We cant give up now! Its going to go all the way to the convention.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oH0nYHUvBBs
If you support Barack Obama you have to get out there & volunteer & do everything you can to get him to the White House. Just imagine the next 8 years with another Republican or Hillary & get motivated!
13harmonyfrance: it's not out of anyone's hands yet! we all have to keep working to get our candidate to the top
14Cant wait to never hear the word Clinton again!
15She won Texas with 51% of the vote....not exactly a huge victory.
16Because the delegates are given out proportionally, I think he is still ahead in the delegate count...and I think the next two states will be his. This race is far from over. I just wish she would stop damaging the whole party with her tactics. He has gone easy on her....he hasn't brought up the White Water scandal, but you know that the Republicans will in the general election if she ever gets that far. Obama has led a very clean campaign, and it is another example of why based on the issues, I think he would make a great president.
lili and emily: You are right I shouldn't have assumed that you weren't actively campaigning for Barack. I apologize for that. It just seems to me that a lot of people are b*tching about whats going on (on all sides) and very few are actually doing anything about it besides casting their one vote...or in texas two...lol. Good for you if you are doing more!
17whatever the democrats are going to lose it either way, with all the fighting and the vowing to go Republican if one wins over another, why don't people just hand the presidency over to McCain already?? It's so annoying!!
18Obama hasn't lost any momentum. In these states, as will ALL of the others, her numbers start waaaaay up in early polling, and then when people get to know him her margin shrinks. He still has a 120+ delegate lead on her. He will probably get more delegates than her from Texas, because he will most likely win the caucus and she barely won the primary. Plus, he won in more populated areas so he will get more delegates from the primary anyway. Yes, Hillary could win if some major catastrophe happens. But unless she starts making some HUGE wins, she will never get enough delegates.
Obama has won by 60% or more in something like 11 or 12 states. Hillary has only hit 60% twice.
Obama's team has this roster of predictions for the primaries and caucuses. They have been incredibly accurate so far, with the only surprise being Maine (he won). If their predictions continue to be accurate, Obama will have the most delegates by the time Puerto Rico is finished. Even if Florida and Michigan re-vote, Obama will take Michigan and Hillary will take Florida, and Obama will still be the winner.
I just wish Hillary would find her class somewhere deep inside, and stop INVENTING things for the Republicans to use in the general election. She really misses the big picture.
19Go Hillary! I really believe in her and her solutions to our big problems.
20After last night she looks like she's back. Even if she's still behind in the delegate count, it looks like she's revived her campaign. People love comebacks.
21I think Clinton's momentum will help her. I think Obama is still the front runner right now, but Clinton still has a chance to win it. Some superdelegates have said they will go with the popular vote; other have pledged themselves to a particular candidate. Still others haven't said yet who they plan on voting for or how they plan on deciding. I do think it's interesting, thought, that Obama has only pulled off one or two victories in "big states" (depending on whether you view Georgia as a "big state" or not). If you don't view Georgia as a big state, which I think people are pretty much divided on, Obama's only big state victory came from his home state, which may hurt him in the field of the superdelegates, who will be looking for a candidate who can carry these states in the election.
No matter how it goes, both candidates have campaigned hard and (sometimes) used campaign tactics in lieu of policy plans. I'm not saying they don't have plans, just that they are both using campaign tactics; it's not just Hillary!
22Good points juju.
I don't like how people act as though we have an exciting roller coaster - there are slight shifts (which put both states closer to 50/50 and split up the delegates), but ultimately these two campaigns are winning the states they always knew they were winning... but since we don't all vote on the same day, I think we're able to insert the falling ahead/behind, even when we all know there are states that each will win in the future (even after super tuesday, weird).
Also, I read that Hillary is trying to get superdelegates to follow her because she's the candidate the can get big blue states and not small red ones. But, isn't that the opposite of what we should want when we're looking at the general election? Dems will get our solid blue states, Reps will get the solid red ones... what matters is who captures the in-between, slightly red or slightly blue states. I live in the Red - it will not be Hillary. Women here HATE her, and men wouldn't vote for her either. There is just something about her, where if I as a independent, Dem leaning woman am trying to like her and find the good in her... the Reps and independents here aren't even going to try. They'll go McCain without hesitation if the Dem candidate is Hillary.
Dems should want the candidate that can win those smaller, pinker states.
23I agree that the Dems should try to nominate someone who can win swing states, Meg, but I don't think Hillary has won only blue states. Ohio was a big win for her. (OK, we pretty much knew she was going to win it, but it's still important.) Ohio can go either way, with Cleveland using voting blue and Cincinnati usually voting red, with everyone else shifting. And, Ohio typically predicts the winner in the general election. So, I think her pretty substantial victory in Ohio will say something to the superdelegates.
24Oops, I meant Cleveland usually voting blue not "using voting blue."
25I got distracted by work while I was typing, so missed some comments before hitting post, and wanted to add that I really like how clearly Jillness maps out the stats and issues, especially how Hillary's 'wins' aren't solid, whole state behind her wins but that voters in the states are almost consistently closely divided between the candidates... how even though people are saying she's 'won' something, Obama is still racking up points on the delegate board after last night.
26lilkimbo - Ohio was won by Clinton at 54% of Dem voters. I don't think that these wins predict whether the whole state will turn if their 1st choice in the primary doesn't make it to the general election...
Cincinnati was 61% Obama, and Clinton 38%... like in TX, Obama has stongholds in the Ohio cities and Clinton in the surrounding areas... I haven't come to any conclusions on what exactly that means yet (and would love some ideas)...
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
Also, the winner of Ohio in the general election typically predicts the winner in the general election... we'll have to wait till November to see how Ohio and its predicting power goes.
27keep up the faith in obama. change we can believe in!!!!
28Meg, I know that Hillary won with 54% to Obama's 44%. I consider any double digit win pretty substantial, especially considering that in so many elections (not specifically these primaries, just elections for national office in general), the win margin is more like 49% to 51%. I guess our difference there comes from the definition of the word substantial.
As far as the big cities go, do you know how each candidate fared in Cleveland and Columbus? What about Toledo, Dayton, and Akron, which aren't necessarily "big cities," but are still urban, rather than suburban or rural. I can't find them, which is why I'm asking. (The link you gave isn't loading for me.)
And, as far as Ohio have the power to predict general elections, I was simply commenting on a trend. I wasn't stating that the winner in Ohio will predict the winner, just that Ohio has a history of predicting the winner.
29Um, if anyone is allowing SNL, a washed-up sketch comedy show, to influence their views and/or votes, America has some serious problems.
30Oh, and I wasn't implying that the state will turn if their primary choice doesn't make it to the general, just that people will be more motivated to vote if their choice makes it. And, with the country being so divided on so many issues, voter turnout really is what makes or breaks many elections.
31It's ridiculous to say that this isn't a close race. It obviously is. It is not mathematically possible for EITHER of them to get enough delegates to win the nomination. Even if either of them won every single delegate from here on out. This is going to be decided by the superdelegates. She's not going to drop out. She's going to go all the way. She isn't a quitter.
32" It is not mathematically possible for EITHER of them to get enough delegates to win the nomination"
Yes, but most superdelegates have said that they will vote with the will of the people. At this point, he has been racking up HUGE wins and minor losses. She has been racking up HUGE losses and mostly minor wins. He was won 27, and she has only won 14. His delegate lead is so large, and including the fact that both campaigns expect him to win in Wyoming and Mississippi, she would have to win by something like 70% in each of the remaining states.
She hasn't won any states by 70% so far.
So yes, it is "possible". But it isn't "likely", excluding any massive mistakes.
"I know that Hillary won with 54% to Obama's 44%. I consider any double digit win pretty substantial"
Did you consider that when Obama was winning with 60, 65, 70, 75% in many states? Most pundits will say that anything over 15% is a substantial win. Most of Obama's 27 wins has been substantial, I believe.
33Thank you Meg!
There is a guy on MSN who does the math with the delegates. He goes through best case and worst case math, and then shows how it could play out. It is really informative, and very non-opinion. Just numbers.
One final point...
34If Hillary won the Texas primary by 3%, and then loses the caucus by 10%, can we really say that she won that state? The caucus results don't have to be MAILED until Friday, so we won't know those results until next week. But I thought it was an interesting question regarding who can lay claim to Texas.
Jillness, I never said that I don't consider Obama's wins substantial. I just said that I also consider a 10 point win substantial. And most political pundits on the shows I watch, as well as most people I know in politics, consider a double-digit win substantial and don't use the 15 point threshold you cited.
35Thanks for the numbers, Jillness. Where are you getting your delegate count from? They seem to vary slightly everywhere I've looked.
36Oh, just saw your last comment! Nevermind.
37i lost whatever zeal i had for obama in the weeks ago. i still see him as all "go getter" but no "ready with a plan". that's great if you want to run student council, but i don't think it works if you are going to be the president to clean up the mess we have right now.
38This race is an open field right now. Either one of them could win it. Here's why- there is no rule in the Democratic Party conventions that says the contender with the largest number of pledged delegates but still short of the total required for nomination should automatically be the nominee. A lead in pledged delegates is just not enough. You still have to convince the party that you are the best nominee.
There are several examples within the Democratic party (Woodrow Wilson & Adlai Stevenson)where a candidate has had less pledged delegates going into the convention but ultimately emerged as the nominee nonetheless.
With neither Clinton or Obama achieving the magic total number of delegates before the convention, the balloting process at the convention will determine it. They both have a good shot and neither one is down and out just yet.
This is a really exciting race with many twists and turns still ahead.
39ovenmitt, did you read Obama's plans on his website? They are very specific.
taylorbath, what you suggest is possible, but that would require the super delegates "stealing" the nomination away from who the citizens voted for. You think she could win the general election like that?
40Go Hillary! It'll be great to have a DEMOCRAT in the White House that actually has some experience under her belt! I think that Hillary gained momentum when she started to act like someone who wants to win the election rather than acting like a stereotypical "girl." By being a little bit aggressive, and not worrying about being called the "B-word" she has shown that she has the ability to be our President! As a woman, I couldn't be more proud or excited to live in a country where we have finally seen the light and are going to allow a woman to rule!
41i love hillary im sure she will win, i just dont like fake people, sorry obama is fake, his speeches are fake, i dont understand when he gives a speech why he has to sound or try and talk like martin luther king, sorry he is no king he will never be, so he should stop trying, i find his campaign kinda fishy too
CLINTON/OBAMA 2008
42pinkprincess, I get the MLK thing from him too! What's up with that? I listened to his speech last night and felt like I was in church.
43jill, i did. i was a huge obama supporter and fervently defended him against anyone who spoke ill of his policies. but i cannot reconcile the obama's youthful idealistic rhetoric with clinton's mature pragmatic rhetoric. it wore on me.
either way - i'm voting for whichever democrat we put up there... i just think right now it should be clinton.
mitt.
44I will be VERY upset with the Dems, a party supposedly of the people, if the elite few of the party (ie - superdelegates) make the decision here. I know they technically will at this point, their votes are needed for either to secure the nom, but if they don't vote with the person who is leading at the end I will lose a lot of faith in the Dems.
45thats they way i felt too, i was like theres still a few days for sunday mass did i miss something, im sorry i dont beleieve anything this man has to say, he seems like he is in it just to say i won, thats just me, martin luther king did great things i think america deserves a black or purple president just not him, the time will come but this is hillary's time
GO HILLARY GO
46!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO HILLARY !!! :clap:
47Jillness as always great posts.
48What has Obama said or done to make people mistrust him? What about him is fake? The man has a nice speaking voice. Just because he's Black does not mean he's trying to sound like King. Is it what he's said or what the Clinton campaign has said about him.
Also, why is this Hillary's time? I can not name one great thing she has done for this country. I want evidence of her 35 years of experience. People accuse Obama supporters of drinking the kool-aid, but it seems Hillary supporters have made up a batch of their own.
49Being a Canadian....and on the outside looking in....I am concerned of a black minority President being elected. Were talking of a great country here....but one that has assasinated three of their most promising leaders...JFK, RFK,MLK. I hope history doesn't repeat. Obama has great potential....but both Hillary and Obama should work on uniting the Democrat party. The Republicans are sitting back rubbing their hands...waiting to get power. Divide and conquer...the Democrats have always been self destructive unfortunately. If American, I would be a staunch Democrat but it pains me to see this self destructive behavior. Get it together and try to see the trees through the forest and what the Republican party is doing. I think all Americans and other people affected have had enough of the Bush agenda. McCain is a good man...too bad he is a Republican.
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